Second Quarter 2023
Affordability challenges continue to limit market activity, with buyers and sellers at a standstill due to fluctuations in mortgage interest rates, which are up considerably from this time last year. Prospective buyers have been sidelined by elevated sales prices and higher borrowing costs, causing existing-home sales to fall, while many would-be sellers with low-rate mortgages have delayed their decision to sell in hopes market conditions will improve, further constraining an already limited supply of homes and driving sales prices higher.
New Listings decreased 18.9 percent for Single Family and 27.7 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales decreased 8.9 percent for Single Family but increased 14.5 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 9.8 percent for Single Family and 21.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 3.0 percent to $695,000 for Single Family but decreased 5.6 percent to $425,000 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market increased 141.7 percent for Single Family and 133.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory increased 18.2 percent for Single Family but decreased 10.5 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Imbalances in supply and demand have boosted competition among homebuyers, especially in more affordable markets, where homes are selling quickly even as sales prices continue to rise. But the shortage of existing homes for sale has also led an increasing number of buyers to the new-home market, which has seen construction and new-home sales surge in recent months, exceeding expectations and causing builder confidence to rise to levels not seen in nearly a year.
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First Quarter 2023
Q1 2023 began with the hope and optimism of a new year: mortgage rates dipped to the low 6% range, leading to a surge in showing activity and a jump in pending sales; builder confidence was on the rise from an uptick in new home sales; and days on market and housing supply continued to improve, giving prospective buyers additional time and options in their home search. After a sluggish year of home sales and weakened market activity, things were beginning to look up for the US real estate market.
City of Santa Fe median home prices rose by 7% from $479,500 in the first Quarter of 2022 to $513,561 this quarter. City home sales decreased by 29% with 157 units sold this quarter compared to 222 in the first Quarter of 2022. During this same period, County of Santa Fe median home prices decreased 3% from $780,000 in 2022 to $753,500 this quarter. County home sales dropped by 13% from 149 units sold in 2022 compared to 129 units in the same Quarter of 2022. The overall volume of home sales dropped from $313M in 2022 to $231M in the first Quarter of 2023 or by 27%.
Condo and townhome sales fell this quarter by 34% with a total of 67 units sold compared to102 in the first Quarter of 2022. The median price of condo/townhomes decreased modestly by about 2% or from $400,000 in the first Quarter of 2022 to $392,500 in 2023. Overall land sales dropped by 37% from 68 in the first Quarter of 2022 to 43 this quarter. Overall land prices noted a drop of 28% at $187,500 in first Quarter of 2022 to $135,000 this quarter. The volume of land sales dropped by 42% or from $17M in 2022 to $10M in the first Quarter of 2023.
The association finds that the inventory of single family homes for sale in the City and County of Santa Fe grew by 20% from a total of 194 in the first Quarter of 2022 to 233 this quarter with a 2.1 month’s supply of inventory. Days on Market until Sale noted a jump up to 62 days for single family homes and 38 days for condos/townhomes this quarter.
Mortgage rates continued to swing throughout the first quarter, impacting affordability and causing market activity to remain down compared to the same time last year, when rates were significantly lower. With fewer buyers competing for homes, price growth has continued to soften nationwide, although inventory remains limited, which has kept prices from falling too much so far. Still, demand for housing remains, and active buyers are taking advantage of any rate declines, as evidenced by the recent uptick in contract signings, new construction and existing-home sales.
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Fourth Quarter 2022
2022 ended in stark contrast to the beginning of the year, as inflation, higher interest rates, and declining affordability further constrained market activity in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 15 years, and mortgage rates remained volatile, with the 30-year fixed-rate briefly exceeding 7% before dropping again in recent weeks. Buyer demand is down significantly compared to this time last year, and sellers and builders have reacted accordingly, cutting prices and offering sales incentives in an attempt to draw buyers.
City of Santa Fe median home prices rose by nearly 14% from $534,693 in the 4th Quarter of 2021 to $608,700 this quarter. City home sales decreased by 42% with 179 units sold this quarter compared to 310 in the 4th Quarter of 2021. During this same period, County of Santa Fe median home prices increased 8% from $738,500 in 2021 to $797,950 this quarter. County home sales dropped by 42% from 240 units sold in 2021 compared to 139 units in the same Quarter of 2022. The overall volume of home sales dropped from $437.8M in 2021 to $299.9M in the 4th Quarter of 2022 or by 31.5%.
Condo and townhome sales fell this quarter by 37% with a total of 104 units sold compared to 165 in the 4th Quarter of 2021. The median price of condo/townhomes decreased modestly by about 3% or from $400,000 in the 4th Quarter of 2021 to $389,500 in 2022. Overall land sales dropped by 65% from 92 in the 4th Quarter of 2021 to 32 this quarter. Overall land prices remained nearly flat at $155,000 in 4th Quarter of 2021 to $154,000 this quarter. The volume of land sales dropped by 68% or from $23M in 2021 to $7.2M in the 4th Quarter of 2022.
Looking at the data, the association finds that the inventory of single family homes for sale in the City and County of Santa Fe grew by 50% from a total of 203 in the 4th Quarter of 2021 to 304 this quarter with a 2.4 month’s supply of inventory. Days on Market until Sale noted a jump up to 42 days for single family homes and 35 days for condos/townhomes this quarter.
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Third Quarter 2022
The U.S. housing market was in a state of rebalance in the third quarter of 2022, as affordability challenges and economic uncertainty caused market activity to cool during what is typically a very busy time of year. The 30- year-fixed rate mortgage exceeded 6% for the first time since 2008, with rates more than double from where they were at the beginning of the year. Buyer demand has fallen rapidly as a result, causing home sales to decline, and prompting home builders to slow construction as they adjust their expectations about the market going forward.
Persistently high levels of inflation have led the Federal Reserve to continue their series of interest rate hikes this year, with the Fed making two 75- basis-point increases in the third quarter alone. As borrowing costs continue to rise, many buyers and sellers are choosing to wait while the market resets before making their next move. For active buyers, however, some relief may be on the horizon. Falling home sales have helped inventory to improve, while the rise in interest rates is putting downward pressure on home prices.
County median home prices increased 8% from $713,492 in 2021 to $775,000 this quarter. County home sales dropped by 22% from 234 units sold in 2021 compared to 181 units in the same Quarter of 2022. During this same period, City of Santa Fe median home prices rose by 21% from $475,000 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to $575,500 this quarter. City home sales decreased by 29% with 226 units sold this quarter compared to 321 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The overall volume of home sales dropped from $443M in 2021 to $365.1M in the 3rd Quarter of 2022 or by 17%.
Condo and townhome sales fell this quarter by 26% with a total of 129 units sold compared to 176 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The median price of condo/townhomes increased by 23% or from $357,000 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to $440,000 in 2022. Overall land sales dropped by 45% from 92 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to 50 this quarter. Overall land prices dipped by 11% from $163,250 in 3rd Quarter of 2021 to $145,000 this quarter. The volume of land sales dropped by 52% or from $18.3M in 2021 to $8.7M in the 3rd Quarter of 2022.
Looking at the data, the association finds that the inventory of single family homes for sale in the City and County of Santa Fe decreased by 2% from a total of 315 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to 308 this quarter with a 2.2 month’s supply of inventory. Days on Market until Sale noted a jump up to 43 days for both single family homes and condos/townhomes this quarter.
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Second Quarter 2022
County median home prices increased by 22% from $647,000 in 2021 to $789,395 this quarter. County home sales dropped by 23% from 232 units sold in 2021 compared to 179 units in the same Quarter of 2022. During this same period, City of Santa Fe median home prices rose by nearly 22% from $480,000 in the 2nd Quarter of 2022 to $583,371 this quarter. City home sales decreased by 17% with 214 units sold this quarter compared to 259 in the 2nd Quarter of 2021. The overall volume of home sales noted a dip from $389.9M in 2021 to $341.3M in the 2nd Quarter of 2022 or by 12%.
Condo and townhome sales fell this quarter by 47% with a total of 107 units sold compared to 201 in the 2nd Quarter of 2021. The median price of condo/townhomes increased by nearly 25% or from $342,160 in the 2nd Quarter of 2021 to $427,000 in 2022. Overall land sales decreased by 43% from 124 in the 2nd Quarter of 2021 to 71 this quarter. Overall land prices rose by 11% from $162,500 in 2nd Quarter of 2021 to $180,000 this quarter. The volume of land sales dropped by 28% or from $24.3M in 2021 to $17.5M in the 2nd Quarter of 2022.The inventory of single family homes for sale in the City and County of Santa Fe decreased by 7.9% from a total of 291 in the 2nd Quarter of 2021 to 268 this quarter with less than a single month’s supply of inventory. Days on Market until Sale also dipped to 17 days for both single family homes and condos/townhomes this quarter.
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First Quarter 2022
The U.S. real estate market continued at a breakneck pace in the first quarter of 2022. Inventory remained at or near record lows and buyer competition was fierce, with homes selling in lightning speed, often with multiple offers. Demand for housing remains steady despite soaring sales prices, which have grown by double-digits nationally, marking 120 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases. Escalating home prices and a lack of inventory have caused pending and existing home sales to fall recently, as buyers continue to have difficulty finding a home to purchase.
New Listings decreased 2.1 percent for Single Family and 45.4 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales decreased 6.1 percent for Single Family and 46.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 45.7 percent for Single Family and 64.5 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 11.5 percent to $622,500 for Single Family and 34.5 percent to $400,000 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market decreased 48.3 percent for Single Family and 22.2 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 46.7 percent for Single Family and 66.7 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
With inflation at a 40-year high, the Federal Reserve has begun a series of expected rate hikes throughout the year. Mortgage rates, which typically lead Federal Reserve action, have surged in recent months, as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 4.6% in March according to Freddie Mac, decreasing affordability and impacting mortgage eligibility for millions of prospective buyers. Economists say additional rate increases and an improvement in housing supply will likely ease demand and slow price growth in the future, but with so few listings for sale currently, the market remains very competitive.
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Fourth Quarter 2021
Q4 picked up where last quarter left off to finish the year strong, capping a record-breaking year for the real estate industry. Nationally, existing home sales grew month after month this quarter, despite rising sales prices and increasing mortgage interest rates, as buyers move to lock in their home purchases before the end of the year. New listings have also increased, albeit slowly, and builders are working steadily to add much needed supply to an ultra-competitive housing environment.
New Listings decreased 6.1 percent for Single Family and 11.4 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales increased 0.7 percent for Single Family and 4.9 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 49.5 percent for Single Family and 73.2 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 13.0 percent to $607,500 for Single Family and 5.5 percent to $398,296 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market decreased 41.5 percent for Single Family and 55.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 52.6 percent for Single Family and 77.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
The Federal Reserve recently announced the tapering of their bond buying program, set to end in March 2022, with a series of interest rate increases to follow. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, expects mortgage interest rates will reach 3.7% by the end of 2022, and high sales prices, coupled with increasing down payment amounts, will further decrease affordability, which may leave many first-time home buyers unable to compete. But rising interest rates may also serve to help cool buyer demand, which would likely mean a greater selection of homes for potential buyers.
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Third Quarter 2021
The housing market continued at a blistering pace in Q3 2021, with record high sales prices, low inventory, multiple offers, and strong buyer demand being the lay of the land this summer. In navigating the challenges of a seller’s market, some buyers chose to step outside their comfort zones, including making offers on homes sight unseen, offering more than the asking price, or waiving financing or inspection contingencies in an attempt to sweeten their pitch and gain a leg up on the competition.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region decreased 4.6 percent to 1,166. Pending Sales were down 8.1 percent to 1,010. Inventory levels fell 45.2 percent to 481 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 7.1 percent to $475,000. Days on Market was down 51.9 percent to 29 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 51.8 percent to 1.6 months.
While some homebuyers chose to persevere through bidding wars, escalation clauses, and line-out-the-door open houses, others decided to put their home searches on hold and rent for the time being, only to find conditions much the same in the rental market. But nationwide, Q3 also saw an improvement in new listings which, along with a small decline in home sales, may signify the market is beginning to moderate and possibly shifting to a more buyer-friendly environment.
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Second Quarter 2021
Q2 2021 continued the trends seen in the first quarter – strong buyer demand and low inventory in most market segments, coupled with low interest rates, drove multiple offers for above asking price on many properties. In May, the National Association of REALTORS® reported that the median sales price of existing homes rose by 24% over the previous year – the highest increase since 1999. While this breakneck pace of price appreciation is likely to slow a bit in the coming months, low inventory and healthy buyer demand are expected to keep the market active throughout the next quarter.
New Listings increased 17.4 percent for Single Family and 33.6 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales increased 21.3 percent for Single Family and 70.0 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 51.0 percent for Single Family and 69.5 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 34.8 percent to $600,000 for Single Family and 26.0 percent to $341,580 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market decreased 31.4 percent for Single Family and 34.6 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 57.6 percent for Single Family and 78.6 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
As the quarter was coming to a close, lumber prices fell by more than half of their record highs earlier in the quarter, but were still about double from their pre-pandemic levels. The lower lumber prices are great news for new construction builders and potential homebuyers and are likely to have a positive impact on the amount of housing built in the coming months, as some projects that were delayed due to high prices are restarted.
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First Quarter 2021
The real estate market in the first quarter of 2021 tends to be a good indicator of how the rest of the year will unfold. With strong buyer demand and low inventory across most market segments both locally and nationally, multiple offers were a common occurrence during the quarter as the weather warmed and COVID-19 restrictions began to ease, creating even more urgency in an already frenzied market.
Median SINGLE FAMILY HOME sales prices in SANTA FE COUNTY rose by 13.5% compared to the first quarter of 2020, while the number of single family home sales in Santa Fe County increased 9.9%.
During this same period, CITY OF SANTA FE median SINGLE FAMILY HOME sales prices increased 9.5%, while the number of single family home sales in the City decreased 8.5%. The overall volume of single family home sales in the City and County combined increased from $230.2M in the 1st Quarter of 2020 to $289.4M in the 1st Quarter of 2021, an increase of 25.7%.
The number of CONDO AND TOWNHOME sales in the CITY increased 6.3% while the median sales price saw a modest decrease of 1.8%.
INVENTORY LEVELS of homes continue to fall. In the first quarter of 2021, inventory of SINGLE FAMILY HOMES in the city and county fell 61.9% compared to the same quarter in 2020. CONDO AND TOWNHOME inventory dropped 57.5%.
The number of RESIDENTIAL LAND sales in the CITY increased 40% from the first quarter of 2020, while the median sales price increased a dramatic 38.8%. The number of RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES in the COUNTY increased 38.5%, while the median sales price saw an increase of 14.8%.
As the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines continues to accelerate and the economy slowly reopens, strong buyer demand is likely to remain even in the face of falling housing affordability. Existing home seller and new construction activity remains well below levels necessary for housing supply to come into balance with demand, so expect the soaring housing market to continue unabated in the coming months.
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Fourth Quarter 2020
Q4 continued the rebound in housing activity seen in the third quarter, with buyer activity remaining high while seller activity remains too little to bring supply into balance with demand in most market segments.
Median SINGLE FAMILY HOME sales prices in SANTA FE COUNTY rose by 10.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, while the number of single family home sales in Santa Fe County increased a dramatic 46.4%.
During this same period, CITY OF SANTA FE median SINGLE FAMILY HOME sales prices increased 28.5%, while the number of single family home sales in the City increased 19.9%. The overall volume of single family home sales in the City and County combined increased from $250.1M in the 4th Quarter of 2019 to $399.2M in the 4th Quarter of 2020, an increase of 59.6%.
The number of CONDO AND TOWNHOME sales in the CITY increased 17.9% while the median sales price saw an increase of 33.9%.
INVENTORY LEVELS of homes continue to fall. In the fourth quarter of 2020, inventory of SINGLE FAMILY HOMES in the city and county fell 53.7% compared to the same quarter in 2019. CONDO AND TOWNHOME inventory dropped 17.0%.
The number of RESIDENTIAL LAND sales in the CITY increased 44.4% from the fourth quarter of 2019, while the median sales price decreased 15.2%. The number of RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES in the COUNTY increased 25.7%, while the median sales price saw a modest increase of 3.0%.
The 2021 housing market looks to start the year with continued strong buyer demand, near record-low mortgage rates, and limited supply of properties for sale in many market segments. While market fundamentals are strong, the resurgence of COVID-19 in recent weeks leaves some uncertainty on the potential impacts to the economy, the housing market, and the country overall as we wait for the deployment of the vaccines to bring back some stability and normalcy to society.
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Third Quarter 2020
Buyers and sellers came back into the market in Q3 2020, with buyer activity up substantially from a year earlier. While seller activity has improved from last quarter, sellers are not listing enough homes to meet the increased demand seen from buyers. Fast sales, multiple offers, and low inventory are likely to continue into what is normally a slower time of year.
New Listings increased 5.6 percent for Single Family and 22.1 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales increased 21.4 percent for Single Family and 10.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 44.4 percent for Single Family and 20.8 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 19.8 percent to $536,995 for Single Family but decreased 2.5 percent to $316,750 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market decreased 11.7 percent for Single Family and 11.1 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 45.2 percent for Single Family and 17.9 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
While the housing market cools with the changing of the seasons, all signs point to buyer activity remaining elevated as compared to the same period a year ago. The fundamentals of the housing market remain strong and indications point to a healthy and active Q4 to end the year.
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Second Quarter 2020
New Listings decreased 28.1 percent for Single Family and 40.7 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales decreased 9.7 percent for Single Family and 16.8 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 41.0 percent for Single Family and 37.9 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 4.7 percent to $445,000 for Single Family but decreased 2.2 percent to $271,000 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market decreased 19.0 percent for Single Family but increased 52.9 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 38.6 percent for Single Family and 37.8 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
While buyer activity continues to be robust, seller activity continues to be a bit softer, with fewer homes being listed for sale than a year ago. Many housing experts believe sellers remain reluctant to list their homes due to continued concerns over COVID-19, which was beginning to see a resurgence in June. Until sellers regain confidence, housing inventory will continue to be constrained during what is expected to be an active summer selling season.
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First Quarter 2020
New Listings decreased 13.9 percent for Single Family and 15.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales decreased 13.7 percent for Single Family and 28.1 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 31.7 percent for Single Family and 1.1 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 10.2 percent to $458,941 for Single Family and 12.6 percent to $300,000 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market decreased 9.1 percent for Single Family and 26.2 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 28.6 percent for Single Family and 4.8 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
While the effect of COVID-19 is varied throughout the country, we are likely to see impacts to housing activity now and into the coming months. Its continued spread is leading many companies and consumers to change their daily activities.
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Fourth Quarter 2019
New Listings decreased 22.0 percent for Single Family but increased 21.7 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales decreased 5.3 percent for Single Family but increased 6.5 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 32.9 percent for Single Family and 21.0 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Buyer demand continues to be strong but with low seller activity still in many locations, total sales are lower than they would normally be in a more balanced market. While up from their recent lows a few months ago, mortgage rates end the year close to three-quarters of a percent lower than a year ago, helping offset rising home prices. While delinquency rates remain low across most debt types, including mortgages, higher consumer debt loads can limit future household spending capability and increase risk if the economy slows down.
Median Sales Price remained flat at $460,000 for Single Family but decreased 1.4 percent to $280,000 for Townhouse/Condo properties. Days on Market remained flat for Single Family but increased 4.8 percent for Townhouse/Condo properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 32.5 percent for Single Family and 26.1 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
With low mortgage rates, low unemployment, and continued wage growth, home buyer activity is expected to remain healthy into the new year. New construction has been on the rise in 2019 and is expected to continue into 2020, but many experts note that the country is still not building enough new units to quench demand. It remains to be seen whether existing homeowners will be enticed to sell by higher home prices, which could finally bring the overall housing market into greater balance, and what impact the 2020 election year may have on the motivations of both buyers and sellers.
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Third Quarter 2019
With the kids back in school and the weather cooling, the housing market begins its annual cooldown as well. Nationally, buyer and seller activity remained strong, buoyed by low mortgage rates and a strong economy. The market fundamentals suggest no significant changes from recent trends, other than the seasonally tempered pace we see this time of year. As we move into the final quarter of 2019, buyers will find fewer homes coming on the market, but also less competition for those homes.
New Listings decreased 13.1 percent for Single Family but increased 1.1 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Pending Sales increased 14.7 percent for Single Family and 26.2 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Inventory decreased 21.1 percent for Single Family and 16.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Median Sales Price increased 10.3 percent to $462,000 for Single Family and 25.2 percent to $324,950 for Townhouse/Condo. Days on Market increased 15.1 percent for Single Family and 15.4 percent for Townhouse/Condo. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 17.0 percent for Single Family and 20.0 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
In Washington there are discussions around a broad overhaul of the housing finance system, including the re-privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and reforms to federal agencies involved with financing substantial portions of the mortgages made every year. Many of these policy conversations and eventual changes will take months or years to be implemented and their impact is not yet clear. While Halloween decorations are beginning to adorn homes around the country, the real estate market this fall is looking far from scary.
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Second Quarter 2019
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve did not change the target range for the federal funds rate – currently set at 2.25 to 2.5 percent – during their June meeting. Although the economy is still performing well due to factors such as low unemployment and solid retail sales, uncertainty remains regarding trade tensions, slowed manufacturing and meek business investments.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region decreased 1.2 percent to 1,270. Pending Sales were down 4.3 percent to 864. Inventory levels fell 8.5 percent to 1,131 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 5.7 percent to $370,000. Days on Market was down 15.8 percent to 64 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 5.1 percent to 4.2 months.
In terms of relative balance between buyer and seller interests, residential real estate markets across the country are performing well within an economic expansion that will become the longest in U.S. history in July. However, there are signs of a slowing economy. The Federal Reserve considers 2.0 percent a healthy inflation rate, but the U.S. is expected to remain below that this year. The Fed has received pressure from the White House to cut rates in order to spur further economic activity, and the possibility of a rate reduction in 2019 is definitely in play following a string of increases over the last several years.
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First Quarter 2019
In addition to the quandary of ongoing housing price increases and affordability concerns in many U.S. markets, the first quarter of 2019 saw a fair share of adverse weather as well. Sales totals were mixed across the nation and sometimes dependent on what was a persistent wintry mix, especially in the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, new listings and total homes for sale have been trending lower in year-over-year comparisons in many areas, and last year’s marks were already quite low.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region decreased 13.6 percent to 745. Pending Sales were down 8.8 percent to 686. Inventory levels fell 16.9 percent to 898 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 11.8 percent to $373,000. Days on Market was down 7.1 percent to 82 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 10.0 percent to 4.0 months.
The Federal Reserve recently announced that no further interest rate hikes are planned for 2019. Given the fact that the federal funds rate has increased nine times over the past three years, this was welcome news for U.S. consumers, which carry an approximate average of $6,000 in revolving credit card debt per household. Fed actions also tend to affect mortgage rates, so the pause in rate hikes was also welcome news to the residential real estate industry.
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Fourth Quarter 2018
Home prices were consistently up again in most markets in 2018 but at reduced levels compared to recent years. High demand for few homes for sale fueled price increases, but evidence is mounting that inventory will finally improve in 2019. This may apply some downward pressure on prices for beleaguered home buyers. A fourth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2018 spooked the stock market to close out the year. The Fed has indicated that the number of rate increases in 2019 will be halved, which may be of little comfort to an already compressed consumer.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region increased 2.6 percent to 700. Pending Sales were down 8.4 percent to 644. Inventory levels fell 14.0 percent to 1,015 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 18.2 percent to $384,200. Days on Market was down 15.5 percent to 68 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 16.2 percent to 4.9 months.
Unemployment rates remained remarkably low again in 2018, and wages continued to improve for many U.S. households. It is generally good for all parties involved in real estate transactions when wages grow, but the percentage of increase, on average, has not kept pace with home price increases. This created an affordability crux in the second half of 2018. Housing affordability will remain an important storyline in 2019.
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Third Quarter 2018
New listings in the Santa Fe region increased 8.2 percent to 1,147. Pending Sales were up 5.9 percent to 843. Inventory levels fell 19.4 percent to 1,241 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 5.6 percent to $355,134. Days on Market was down 23.3 percent to 55 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 25.5 percent to 5 months.
Some economy observers are pointing to 2018 as the final period in a long string of sentences touting several happy years of buyer demand and sales excitement for the housing industry. Although residential real estate should continue along a mostly positive line for the rest of the year, rising prices and interest rates coupled with salary stagnation and a generational trend toward home purchase delay or even disinterest could create an environment of declining sales.
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Second Quarter 2018
New listings in the Santa Fe region decreased 1.9 percent to 1,253. Pending Sales were up 7.6 percent to 880. Inventory levels fell 27.3 percent to 1,129 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 8.4 percent to $358,500. Days on Market was down 38.8 percent to 76 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 33.1 percent to 4.2 months.
Inventory may be persistently lower in year-over-year comparisons, and home prices are still more likely to rise than not, but sales and new listings may finish the summer on the upswing. The housing supply outlook in several markets in beginning to show an increase in new construction and a move by builders away from overstocked rental units to new developments for sale. These are encouraging signs in an already healthy marketplace.
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First Quarter 2018
The Median Sales Price increased 7.3 percent to $335,784. Days on Market was down 35.7 percent to 90 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 31.7 percent to 4.3 months.
The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by 0.25 percent in March, citing concerns about inflation. It is the sixth rate increase by the Fed since December 2015, and at least two more rate increases are expected this year. Borrowing money will be more expensive, particularly for home equity loans, credit cards and adjustable rate mortgages, but rising wages and a low national unemployment rate that has been at 4.1 for five months in a row would seem to indicate that we are prepared for this. And although mortgage rates have risen to their highest point in four years, they have been quite low for several years.
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Fourth Quarter 2017
The number of homes for sale, days on market and months of supply were all down in year-over-year comparisons in a majority of the country for the entirety of 2017, as was housing affordability. And although total sales volumes were mixed, prices were consistently up in most markets. Buyers may not benefit from higher prices, but sellers do, and there should be more listing activity by more confident sellers in 2018. At least that would be the most viable prediction for an economic landscape pointing toward improved conditions for sellers.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region increased 2.5 percent to 656. Pending Sales were down 10.8 percent to 504. Inventory levels fell 12.0 percent to 1,254 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 4.6 percent to $325,000. Days on Market was down 40.9 percent to 81 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 22.9 percent to 5.9 months.
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Third Quarter 2017
Every market is unique, yet the national sentiment has given rise to the notion that housing markets are stalling. Although desirous buyers are out on an increasing number of showings, there remains a limited number of desirable listings. And although mortgage rates have remained enticingly low, home prices have reached unaffordable levels for many new entrants into the housing pool at exactly the same time that established owners are proving to be less interested in moving.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region decreased 7.7 percent to 1,036. Pending Sales were down 27.1 percent to 522. Inventory levels fell 3.4 percent to 1,695 units.
The Median Sales Price increased 7.3 percent to $338,030. Days on Market was down 45.0 percent to 70 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 15.6 percent to 6.9 months.
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Second Quarter 2017
There has been a general slowdown in sales across the country, and this cannot be blamed on negative economic news. Unemployment remains low and wage growth, though nothing to overly celebrate, has held steady or increased for several years in a row. There is strong demand for home buying, emphasized by higher prices and multiple offers on homes for sale in many submarkets. As has been the case for month after month – and now year after year – low inventory is the primary culprit for any sales malaise rather than lack of offers. New Listings in the Santa Fe region decreased 7.8 percent to 1,248. Pending Sales were down 25.6 percent to 560. Inventory levels fell 0.6 percent to 1,711 units. The Median Sales Price increased 4.7 percent to $335,000. Days on Market was down 6.2 percent to 128 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 12.5 percent to 6.4 months.
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First Quarter 2017
We can comfortably consider the first quarter to have been a good start for residential real estate in 2017. There was certainly plenty to worry over when the year began. Aside from new national leadership in Washington, DC, and the policy shifts that can occur during such transitions, there was also the matter of continuous low housing supply, steadily rising mortgage rates and ever-increasing home prices. Nevertheless, sales have held their own in year-over-year comparisons and should improve during the busiest months of the real estate sales cycle.
New Listings in the Santa Fe region increased 2.8 percent to 859. Pending Sales were down 29.9 percent to 420. Inventory levels rose 1.5 percent to 1,461 units.
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Fourth Quarter 2016
Most of 2016 offered the same quarterly housing market highlights. The number of homes for sale was drastically down in year-over-year comparisons, along with days on market and months of supply. Meanwhile, sales and prices were up in most markets.
The overwhelming feeling about prospects in residential real estate for the immediate future is optimism. Real estate professionals across the nation are expressing that they are as busy as ever. There are certainly challenges in this market, like continued low inventory and higher competition for those fewer properties, but opportunities abound for creative and diligent people prepared to put in the necessary amount of work.
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Third Quarter 2016
As anticipated at the outset of the year, demand has remained high through the first three quarters of 2016, propping up sales and prices despite heavy reductions in inventory and months of supply across the country. With rental prices and employment opportunities in a consistent climb, year-over-year increases in home buying are probable for the rest of the year but not guaranteed.
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Second Quarter 2016
Halfway through 2016, residential real estate markets are performing as predicted at the beginning of the year. Sales and prices have been going up in most areas, while the number of homes for sale and total months’ supply of inventory have been going down. Meanwhile, many sellers have been getting a higher percentage of their asking price, and supply continues to struggle to meet demand.
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